Quantum technology has long been regarded as a symbolic field of fundamental research, but it is now clearly entering the next phase of “industrialization.” A recent joint study published by the European Patent Office (EPO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) highlights this turning point through multifaceted data. Building on the findings of this study, this article examines structural changes in the global quantum ecosystem, as well as the challenges and opportunities currently facing Japan.
One of the most striking points is the rapid expansion of market size and innovation activity. The global quantum market is projected to reach approximately €93 billion by 2035, with patent filings, investment levels, and the number of companies all growing at a rapid pace. Over the past decade, the number of International Patent Families (IPFs) has increased fivefold, indicating that quantum technology is no longer confined to research laboratories alone. At the same time, the study repeatedly emphasizes that scaling up technologies and achieving commercialization remain significant hurdles.
Quantum technology can broadly be divided into three fields: quantum communication, quantum computing, and quantum sensing. Among these, quantum communication long held the largest share of patent filings, but in recent years quantum computing has shown particularly remarkable growth. Since 2005, it has expanded by approximately 60 times and is expected to become a central pillar of the quantum ecosystem going forward. This reflects the high expectations placed on quantum computing as a general-purpose technology with applications in areas such as artificial intelligence, materials development, and drug discovery.
From a country-by-country perspective, competition in quantum innovation has clearly become internationalized. In terms of cumulative IPFs, the United States leads the field, followed by Europe, Japan, China, and South Korea. Within Europe, Germany, the United Kingdom, and France stand out in particular, and promising startups such as PASQAL and C12 have emerged. At the same time, the study points out that many European startups struggle at the stages of fundraising and scaling up. As noted by the President of the EPO, attracting private capital is indispensable for translating basic research into commercial success.
The structure of the quantum ecosystem itself also exhibits noteworthy characteristics. While more than 4,500 companies are involved overall, fewer than 1,000 can be classified as “core quantum companies” whose main business is quantum technology itself. Most of these core companies are startups that rely heavily on public funding and early-stage investment. In contrast, a large share of patent filings and job creation is driven by “non-core companies” that integrate quantum technologies into existing businesses. In many cases, it is large corporations that play the central role in actual commercialization. This reveals a division of roles between research-driven innovation and industrial implementation.
Seen in this context, Japan’s position is by no means weak. Japan ranks third globally in the number of quantum-related patents, holding 1,519 IPFs between 2005 and 2024. Its strengths are particularly evident in the field of quantum communication, where companies such as Toshiba, NTT, and NEC demonstrate a strong global presence. In fact, Toshiba is among the world’s top quantum patent applicants, alongside IBM and Intel. In addition, Japanese universities and research institutions are well represented among the top 20 applicants across various quantum fields.
That said, there are also points of concern. Although Japan’s global share remains relatively high at 13% for the period from 2020 to 2024, it has declined from 16% in the 2015–2019 period. This suggests that Japan may be lagging in relative terms as other countries, particularly the United States and Europe, accelerate investment and talent deployment. While Japan maintains competitiveness in research capabilities and patent quality, there appears to be room for improvement in areas such as startup development and the circulation of capital needed for large-scale commercialization.
Another important perspective highlighted by the study is the importance of collaboration. Quantum technology cannot be fully realized by individual companies or research institutions alone; social implementation becomes possible only through cooperation among public research organizations, startups, and large enterprises. In addition, the increasing concentration of supply chains for critical quantum devices, components, and materials in specific regions or companies poses geopolitical risks that cannot be ignored. Furthermore, beyond advanced technical expertise, shortages in soft skills such as business development and management are also cited as factors hindering commercialization.
Taken together, these findings indicate that competition in quantum technology is shifting away from the mere accumulation of research results toward the question of “how to nurture it as an industry.” For Japan, the key challenge lies in translating its accumulated technological capabilities and patent assets into real businesses through startup support, public–private partnerships, and international cooperation. Quantum technology is still in its early stages, but precisely for that reason, today’s choices and investments will have a major impact on industrial competitiveness ten or twenty years from now. The EPO–OECD study powerfully underscores this reality.